Pakistan's GDP growth cut to 3.65%: what the new numbers say about your income and the economy

Pakistan’s economy grew more slowly last year than the government hoped. The 118th National Accounts Committee (NAC), which met on Monday, October 19, at the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, revised growth for the 2025-26 fiscal year to 3.65%, Dawn reported.

The headline numbers

	FY26	FY25
GDP growth	3.65%	3.11% (revised)
Size of economy	$450.4bn	$410.96bn
Per capita income	$1,896	$1,824

The government had first targeted 4%, then projected 3.70% in May. The new figure means Pakistan fell short of its target, which officials put down to a mild slowdown in industry and services.

Sector by sector

• Agriculture: up to 3.50% (from 2.89%), the bright spot.
• Industry: down to 3.34% (from 3.51%).
• Services: down to 3.81% (from 4.09%).
• Large-scale manufacturing: cut to 5.01% from 6.11%.
• Construction: up to 6.30%.
• Wholesale and retail trade: slowed to 2.37% from 3.71%.

Growth also faded through the year: 3.89%, 4.31% and 4.42% in the first three quarters, then just 2% in the April-June quarter.

What it means for ordinary people

Per capita income rose to $1,896 a year, or Rs531,897 (about Rs44,300 a month), according to HUM English. That’s an average, and most people earn far less. Dawn notes it’s still the lowest in the region.

Growth of under 4% isn’t enough to create jobs for the millions of young Pakistanis entering the workforce each year. The good news in agriculture matters for rural incomes, but the slowdown in shops, trade and factories is what many city families will feel.

The new estimate is in line with outside forecasts: the IMF projected 3.6%, and the World Bank and Asian Development Bank 3.7%.

Markets

The stock market had a nervous Monday as the figures came in. The KSE-100 index fell 453.63 points (0.27%) to close at 165,966, The Nation reported, with 302 shares falling and 163 rising.